Confusion over HSV2 transmission rates

[mrlalaba]

Hey. firstly thank you for providing this fantastic service.

I am a little confused over the HSV2 transmission rates. I see that the consensus seems to be 10% transmission infected male to uninfected female and 4% for infected female to uninfected male. These figures are for sex twice a week for a year. There are also the figures Valtex supply that are a little more optimistic for men with an 8% transmission rate and 4% again for women. I’m happy to go with 10% here though. I see the consensus on meds is that they can reduce transmission by 50%.

I noticed in various posts on this forum you state that condoms can reduce transmission by up to 96%, a fairly recent study, I believe it’s this one: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4725379/.

If this was to be the case, wouldn’t that reduce the transmission risk of male to female to around 0.4%? Maybe that’s a little too optimistic and lets say condoms are 90% effective then it would reduce the risk to 1% for a male having sex twice a weak with uninfected female and no meds.

However in a recent post on this forum you state that it’s 10% male to female non condom and no meds and the risk is cut down to around 4% with condoms. Why would it be 4% if condoms can reduce transmission rates up to 96%?

Look forward to hearing your answer,

Thanks

[Terri Warren]

I do understand what you are getting at and you raise a great point. The studies that we are discussing really had quite different results
The difference really is what we have seen in studies looking at transmission in our antiviral medicine studies and what they have found in condom studies. Perhaps a more accurate answer should be that condoms reduce transmission between 50-96% In the condom studies, condoms were used 100% of the time. In our antiviral medicine studies, they were used far less often though people were instructed to use them 100% of the time. I would say that if men actually used condoms 100% of the time, the reduction would be far greater. The other thing is that we studied people who had been together for quite a while – survivors, in a way. Transmission had not yet happened and most transmission happens in the first 3 months of a relationship. So the population was specific. And in the antiviral study, not enough people used condoms regularly to get the statistics out of that population.

Your question is an excellent one and not an easy one to answer but I think it is safe to say that condoms used every time that don’t break or come off are very effective in reducing transmission.

Terri

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