1) Because HSV 1 is shed quite infrequently from the genital tract.
2) There is an 88% chance you will not have another outbreak but that does not mean that you are not shedding virus without symptoms
3) probably about the same but since HSV 1 shed so infrequently, it’s just not as much of an issue
4) I don’t think I’ve seen more than a handful in 32 years of practice, that I know are genital to genital transmission for sure. But that’s really hard to sort out because often people have intercourse with and receive oral sex from the same person so you can’t know for sure where it came from.
It should not only be determined whether she gets cold sores or not but also what is her actual HSV 1 antibody status. Probably 70% of people who are HSV 1 positive don’t get cold sores that they recall. If this is a meaningful relationship, I can’t imagine that she would mind testing. Also, she could have HSV 2 and not know it and you would be vulnerable to that. It only makes sense to test for all likely STD’s before having sex these days.
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