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I don’t have any specific research numbers about how certain a negative ELISA is at 10 weeks. But if it is also negative, that’s obviously a good thing – I just can’t give you a percentage.
The little white pimple is not how herpes looks. It looks more like a water blister. Men do get small pimples on their penis, I have seen it many many times, so it could just be that.
As for your unhappy group down there, I don’t have a great explanation but I think you are getting closer and closer to finding out that it is not caused by herpes.