1. The IgM should be ignored. I don’t have any faith whatsoever in this test.
2. I seriously seriously doubt that you have HSV 2. Your numbers are so low; statistically, there is about an 85% chance this is a false positive.
3. There are many factors that influence transmission, some people are more vulnerable than others, some people shed a lot more. I don’t think you can use the statistics about transmission in the way you are using them.
4. This could be herpes, yes, but I still don’t think you have HSV 2.
5. The ELISA screening test misses 1-2 of 10 infections, so you could certainly be infected with HSV 1 and the tests are missing is. The western blot, which I recommend for clarification of your HSV 2 status, is more sensitive for HSV 1 as well. You may well have HSV 1, given your description
I think your partner should definitely get tested to see what her status is. If she’s negative for HSV 2, then you need to figure out when you last had sex with someone else and get tested 16 weeks later.
I hope this is helpful but feel free to ask more questions as needed.
Terri